Regional Security and Risk Analysis Group
Providing foresight-driven analysis of regional security dynamics to support informed decision-making and early response to emerging risks.
Regional Security and Risk Analysis
Nawa’s research and foresight arm operates as a strategic operations room that monitors the regional landscape across the Middle East and the African neighborhood. The group integrates data, in-depth analysis, and field expertise to support informed decision-making.
Regional Security and Risk Analysis
The institution’s research and foresight arm produces analyses and applied knowledge that help decision-makers read the regional landscape, assess risks, and formulate future scenarios.
This group functions as a strategic operations room within Nawa. It monitors the regional landscape and interprets it using advanced analytical tools. It is not a traditional research unit, but rather a foresight-oriented thinking center that connects information flows, in-depth analysis, and field practice.
The group develops influence maps for conflict parties in the Middle East, the African vicinity, and related maritime corridors. Through this, it can formulate future scenarios that support early and effective responses. In doing so, it is comparable to major international think tanks, with the added advantage of being directly connected to the regional reality.
This section is divided into three parts
Scope
- Analysis of cross-border conflicts, their root causes, and pathways of expansion.
- Monitoring the dynamics of actors, alliances, and rivalries.
- Analysis of war economies, irregular flows, and smuggling networks.
- Integrating protection and human rights considerations into analytical work.
- Tracking international and regional policies and assessing their implications for de-escalation and reconstruction.
Services and Outputs
- Risk and scenario analysis; targeted policy papers.
- Knowledge monitoring, periodic reports, and early-warning indicators.
- Rapid situation reports, in-depth studies, policy briefs, influence maps, and data dashboards.
Products
- Situation reports
- Rapid readings of current developments with time-bound response options.
- In-depth studies
- Long-term analytical frameworks linking structural causes to expected outcomes.
- Policy briefs
- Executive summaries in direct language that support interventions and rapid decision-making.
- Data dashboards and early-warning index
- Live digital tools for tracking changes and following critical indicators.
- Influence maps
- Visual representations of relationships and pathways of influence between formal and informal actors.
